TL;DR
KFF Health News identified 100 U.S. nursing homes where a modeled 100-year flood could bring at least 2 feet of water to the buildings. A September flood forced the evacuation of 36 residents at New Richland Care Center in Minnesota, illustrating the risks both flooding and evacuation pose to medically vulnerable residents.
A KFF Health News analysis has identified 100 U.S. nursing homes where a modeled 100-year flood could bring at least 2 feet of water to the buildings. The risk is illustrated by the New Richland Care Center in southern Minnesota, where 36 residents were evacuated Sept. 19 after floodwater entered the facility and rose through its hallways.
The analysis used peer-reviewed flood hazard mapping provided by Fathom, a U.K.-based flood simulation company. For each of the 100 facilities, Fathom’s data predicted that a 100-year flood event could produce at least 2 feet of water at the building. A 100-year flood is defined as an event with a 1% chance of occurring in any given year; it is not a guarantee that such a flood happens only once every century.
At New Richland Care Center, administrator Robert Johannsen said staff moved all 36 residents out as water entered the building. Residents in wheelchairs were taken through about 4 inches of water to buses. The final three residents were on hospital beds that staff and rescuers raised above the water and pushed across the street, Johannsen said. He described at least 2½ feet of water in the hallways. The government-run facility, about 100 yards from a drainage ditch, has flooded three times in 16 years and is now shuttered, according to the report.
KFF Health News said the September storm was large but not historic, according to the National Weather Service. The analysis builds on a 2025 investigation that used Fathom mapping to identify at least 170 U.S. hospitals at risk of significant flooding. The supplied report excerpt says some nursing homes in Florida, Kentucky, Texas and Washington have flooded in the past five years, but does not provide the full facility list or details for every site.
Flooding Puts Care and Evacuation at Risk
Flood risk at nursing homes can become an immediate resident safety and continuity-of-care problem. The U.S. has nearly 15,000 nursing homes housing more than 1.2 million people, according to the report. Many residents are medically frail, have cognitive impairments or cannot move without assistance; some depend on daily care that may be difficult to maintain during a disaster.
Relocation also carries risks. David Dosa, head of geriatrics at UMass Chan Medical School, has studied nursing home evacuations since Hurricane Katrina. A study he co-wrote found that the regions affected by the next three Gulf hurricanes had a cumulative 277 more nursing home resident deaths than expected in the 30 days after the storms, following more than 270 recorded facility evacuations. The study described an association with increased mortality and morbidity; it does not establish that evacuation alone caused those outcomes.
A separate 2024 study found a 16% greater chance of emergency-room visits among residents of Florida assisted-living facilities evacuated before Hurricane Irma in 2017. Assisted-living residents generally need less care than nursing-home residents, so those findings cannot be directly applied to nursing homes. Together, the research underscores the difficult decisions facilities face: remaining in a flooded building can be dangerous, while moving residents can disrupt care and worsen health risks.
As an affiliate, we earn on qualifying purchases.
Why Flood Maps Matter for Care Homes
Many nursing homes were built near coastlines or waterways in the 1970s, before climate change received broad attention, Dosa told KFF Health News. Some were placed in these locations for comfort, including cooler surroundings. Facilities in those areas may now face hazards that were not central to their original planning.
The report says Fathom’s maps are generally considered more modern than official Federal Emergency Management Agency flood maps, which can be out of date and may not account for a changing climate. The mapping identifies modeled exposure, not a prediction that a particular home will flood in a specific storm. The report also notes that heavy rain can cause flooding away from coastlines and major rivers, and that regions seen as lower risk may be less prepared for floods.
“There was at least 2½ feet of water flowing down the hallways.”
— Robert Johannsen, New Richland Care Center administrator
waterproof hospital bed for flood-prone areas
As an affiliate, we earn on qualifying purchases.
As an affiliate, we earn on qualifying purchases.
What the Risk Estimates Do Not Show
The analysis describes modeled flood exposure, not a forecast of when flooding will occur or whether a named facility will suffer damage. The supplied material does not list all 100 nursing homes, identify each location’s estimated flood depth beyond the 2-foot threshold, or explain what protective measures each facility has in place. It also does not provide a direct comparison of the Fathom estimates with current conditions at every site.
The year of the Sept. 19 New Richland evacuation is not specified in the provided excerpt. The report says the facility is shuttered, but does not give a reopening date, the duration of closure or where residents received care afterward. The excerpt also ends before supplying details about five facilities said to have flooded in 2012, so further information about that group cannot be confirmed from the supplied material.
As an affiliate, we earn on qualifying purchases.
Facility Plans and Reopening Remain Open
The next practical questions are whether the New Richland Care Center can reopen and what measures it or local officials will take to reduce flood exposure. The supplied report does not state a reopening timetable or describe planned repairs, flood defenses or changes to emergency procedures. It also gives no response from the other facilities identified by the analysis.
For the 100 homes, the mapping can help direct attention to potential exposure, but the report does not establish what steps any facility has taken. More detail about individual sites, evacuation planning, available transport and arrangements for residents during a closure would clarify how the modeled risk is being addressed. Until those details are available, the analysis signals potential danger rather than a confirmed forecast of flooding at each home.
water-resistant nursing home safety equipment
As an affiliate, we earn on qualifying purchases.
As an affiliate, we earn on qualifying purchases.
Key Questions
What did the KFF Health News analysis find?
It identified 100 U.S. nursing homes where Fathom flood data predicts at least 2 feet of water at the buildings in a modeled 100-year flood event.
Does a 100-year flood happen only once every century?
No. It refers to a flood event with a 1% chance in any given year. Such an event can occur more than once within a century.
What happened at the Minnesota nursing home?
On Sept. 19, staff evacuated 36 residents from New Richland Care Center after floodwater entered the building. Administrator Robert Johannsen said water reached at least 2½ feet in the hallways. The facility is described as shuttered in the report.
Does the analysis mean all 100 homes will flood?
No. The findings describe modeled flood risk, not a prediction that every home will flood or a timetable for when flooding might happen.
Why can evacuation itself be risky for nursing-home residents?
Residents may be medically frail, have cognitive impairments or rely on regular care. Research cited in the report found health risks following some evacuations, while staying in a flooded facility can also put residents in danger. The supplied material does not identify one approach as safe in every emergency.
Source: rss
